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14/05/2020 By : Katherine

OTT and aviation economist call on industry to pinpoint recovery signs through Green Shoots survey

OTT and aviation economist Peter Morris are calling on the industry to share information which will pinpoint the Green Shoots of recovery within the travel sector.

Peter Morris, Chief Economist for global aviation analysts Ascend by Cirium, acknowledged that the coronavirus pandemic was causing a “universally desperate” situation across the travel industry. He said at this point in time, the industry had “never had it so bad” with reports of airlines collapsing and jobs being axed on a daily basis. Internal and external restrictions on travel were also set to wipe out bookings in destinations, hotels and attractions through the peak holiday season.

“I wouldn’t be mincing my word to say that this has been catastrophic and that the industry has never been hit so badly across the board,” said Peter. But he added the industry had already seen – and survived – previous catastrophes such as 9/11 and SARS. He added there was only one way forward from the current, dire situation: “Up is the only way things can go.”

Green Shoots will look forward to the future

Peter is calling for businesses to collectively take a “forward thinking” approach by taking part in OTT’s Green Shoots survey which will provide a monthly performance benchmark for businesses across the sector. Businesses can play their part in helping identify where and when the Green Shoots of recovery may appear simply by submitting their monthly figures against their 2019 performance.

Peter said that the sector, valued at £10 trillion, was vital to the world economy with the economies of many countries, cities and regions dependent on inbound tourism. He added that recovery would depend on a delicate but complex balance being struck between different internal, border and flight regulations and agreement between continents and countries along with other factors such as safe operation of airports and social distancing restrictions within destination hotels and attractions.

He said: “The Green Shoots survey will serve as an indicator of where and when the industry is set to turn the corner. The travel agency side of the business is in the unique position of being able to look both ways – firstly, towards passengers, customers and business travellers and secondly upstream towards the resorts and destinations.”

“The advantage of running the survey through the OTT community is that we will be able to see a cross section of different countries and different sections of the industry and we will be able to gain insights as to which countries are coming out of the pandemic sooner or better than others.”

Information will help businesses to plan and adapt

“We’ll also be able to look at different trends from passengers and destinations, from the return of the domestic tourism market through to long haul. The survey will act as a benchmark, giving us early indicators of where the green shoots of recovery might be.”

Peter said Europe had been hit particularly badly with airline business around 90 per cent down year-on-year from May 2019. The monthly results from businesses across the OTT platform will be segmented across different countries and sectors.

OTT founder Julia Feuell added: “Throughout the coronavirus pandemic both partners and agents have told us that both access to and communication of accurate information has been vital. Now we’re asking our Travel Professionals to join forces by submitting their information to the Green Shoots survey which will create an industry benchmark of where we are at, and provide indicators of where and when we might see a recovery. This will enable our community of travel businesses and suppliers to look ahead, adjust and adapt their businesses accordingly.”

“The travel industry is a complex chain of related sectors. Regulations and restrictions which are implemented within some sectors have a direct impact on others. Through our Green Shoots monthly surveys, we hope to give air and light to those areas and sectors which are taking their first steps towards recovery and crucially, learn lessons from them.”

The results of the monthly surveys will appear every month on OTT’s news section and via an e-shot to registered members

Submit information monthly to OTT and Peter Morris’ Green Shoots Survey here

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